Saturday, April 19, 2025

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 21 APRIL 2025

 Indian equity markets ended the holiday-shortened week on a high note, with benchmark indices posting robust gains across sectors. On April 17, the Sensex surged 1,508.91 points (1.96%) to 78,553.20, while the Nifty jumped 414.45 points (1.77%) to close at 23,851.65.

After days of range-bound movement near the 200-day EMA, the Nifty finally delivered a decisive breakout, indicating renewed bullish momentum. Despite opening on a weak note, the indices rebounded sharply, staging a powerful intraday recovery that extended into the latter part of the session.


🔥 What Drove the Rally?

  • All sectoral indices ended in the green, with telecom, PSU banks, oil & gas, pharma, auto, energy, and private banks posting 1–2% gains.

  • Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Sun Pharma emerged as top gainers.

  • Financial stocks led the charge, aided by optimism over improved margins due to anticipated changes in savings deposit interest rates.

  • A reversal in FII flows and expectations of positive developments from US-India trade talks also buoyed sentiment.


📊 Technical Picture: Bullish Breakout Confirmed

A long bullish candle was formed on the daily chart, indicating that the entire 9-day downtrend has been reversed in just 7 days of gains—a positive signal pointing to a significant trend reversal.

On the weekly chart, Nifty formed back-to-back bullish candles with gap-up openings, signaling a bullish breakaway gap, often seen at the start of strong uptrends.

  • Next Resistance Level: 24,550 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the Sep 2024 top to April 2025 low)

  • Immediate Support: 23,600


💼 Eyes on Earnings

Investor sentiment remains upbeat, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and stable global cues. The spotlight now turns to the earnings season, with heavyweights like Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank set to announce results early next week.

Analysts continue to recommend a “buy on dips” strategy, especially in rate-sensitive sectors such as banking and auto.


🌐 Macro Boost: Rupee Rises, Trade Talks in Focus

The Indian rupee gained for the fifth consecutive session, marking its best weekly performance in a month. This appreciation was driven by:

  • Strong FII inflows

  • Global risk-on sentiment

  • Optimism surrounding the "China Plus One" strategy, which is drawing global capital toward India

Spot USDINR is expected to find support at 85.20 and face resistance at 85.72 in the near term.


📈 Market Breadth and Broader Indices

  • Advancing stocks: 2,340

  • Declining stocks: 1,468

  • Unchanged: 149

The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices added 0.5% each, though they underperformed relative to large caps.


🔚 Conclusion

With the Nifty inching closer to its all-time highs, and domestic macro indicators holding firm, the mood in Dalal Street remains buoyant. Continued momentum in heavyweight sectors, stable global conditions, and encouraging earnings could set the stage for further upside in the coming weeks.


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