NIFTY OUTLOOK & CALLS FOR F&O 8 SEPTEMBER 2020

Indian markets traded with volatility and finally ended the day with a positive bias. Virus infections continued to rise unabated and this fear combined with a sell off seen in the US markets, served to bring in doubts regarding the continuation of the momentum seen in recent times in the market. A rebound is European stocks and development on the vaccine front lifted market sentiment in late trade but gains were checked by lower than expected job growth in the US and weak Asian markets. US employment growth slowed further in August and permanent job losses increased as money from the government started running out, raising doubts on the sustainability of the economy's recovery. Meanwhile, India became the second most affected country from Covid19, surpassing Brazil. The Sensex settled up 60 points at 38417. Nifty was up 21 points to 11355.

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Markets saw extreme volatility on Thursday 27 Aug 2020 due to the expiry of August derivative contracts. The Sensex ended higher on Thursday, extending gains to the fifth straight day as banking shares continued to rally. The sensex closed 39 points higher at 39113 while the Nifty settled 9 points higher at 11559. 

The Nifty is likely to face stiff resistance between the 11600-11650 level. Shorts have been squeezed hard in this expiry, and with Nifty closing above the psychological mark of 11550, bears are likely to remain cautious. Nifty would meet with a stiff wall of resistance around 11600-11650 zone whereas support is seen around 11450-11350 zone.

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Resistance: 11600, 11700

Support: 11450, 11350

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Market built up on its opening gains, with the support of global cues, and ended the day on a strong note. Following more reopening guidelines by the government, the markets chose to ignore the rising cases of infections. Bulls pushed nifty higher on Monday as signs of progress in developing a Covid-19 treatment offset fears about resurgence in virus cases that could risk stifling an economic recovery. China has allowed locally produced vaccines to be used in emergency situations while the US is planning to allow UK-made vaccines. Meanwhile, USFDA approved blood plasma therapy to treat Covid-19 patients. Further ease in lockdown measures also boosted the sentiment back home. The government on Sunday issued guidelines for restarting its entertainment industry even as infections breached the 3 million mark.

NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT FOR EXPIRY WEEK 24 AUG TO 28 AUG 2020

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11450, 11550,11650

PIVOT POINT: 11350

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11250, 11150, 11050

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11425, 11475,11525

PIVOT POINT: 11350

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11300, 11250, 11200

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

On the back of positive global cues, Nifty started trading for the week with a gap up around the 11250 mark. However, the index gave up the opening gains in the first hour of trade and corrected by about 100 points from the opening level. It then consolidated for most part of the session and recovered gradually to end the day around the opening levels. The index started the Tuesday session on a flat note; however it rallied higher in the first hour of the day up to 11340. It then consolidated below that level and resumed the positive momentum at the end and tested the 11400 mark in last half an hour. Post Tuesday’s breakout, Nifty started Wednesday’s session with a gap up around the 11450 mark. However, it then consolidated within the range of 11460-11400 throughout the day and ended near the lower end of the range. Our markets have seen some relentless move in the last few weeks along with global peers. Since globally we witnessed some nervousness Thursday morning, our markets reacted with a gap down opening but fortunately not to the tune of what SGX Nifty was indicating. During the remaining part of the day, Nifty gyrated in a small range of nearly 70 points to eventually settle the weekly expiry tad above the 11300 mark. nifty closed the week at 11376. 

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The bulls have done very well for themselves today & closed the day above 11350 as hopes of higher government spending to help support the economy continued to lift investor sentiment.  This is good news for the bulls. Market ended higher for the second consecutive day on August 18 with Nifty surpassed 11400 level during the day. At close, the Sensex was up 477 points at 38528, and the Nifty was up 138 points at 11385. Grasim was the top gainer, up 6.68% followed by Ultratech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank, which rallied 3.30% and 3.15% respectively.

NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & VIEW FOR NEXT WEEK 17 AUG TO 21 AUG 2020

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11200, 11350,11500

PIVOT POINT: 11100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11000, 10900, 10800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11250, 11350, 11430

PIVOT POINT: 11050

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10950, 10900, 10850

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Week kick started proceedings with a decent upside gap, owing to cheerful global bourses. However, in the initial trades, our markets extended gains rapidly and, in the process, not only hastened towards 11300 but also surpassed it convincingly. However, post the initial exuberance; nifty slipped into a consolidation mode since the verdict on Telecom’s AGR dues was awaited. In fact, during the latter half, traders chose to take some money off the table to be on the safer side. Despite all this, Nifty managed to close with precisely half a percent gains to reclaim the 11250 mark. Similar to Monday’s session, Tuesday too we had a gap up opening in the wake of relentless run in Global peers and this time it was on account of Russia claiming the vaccine for COVID-19. Subsequently, our markets cooled off a bit after the initial up move; but once again regained strength in the latter half. Eventually, the Nifty ended the session above the 11300 mark. Tuesday night US markets gave up its sizable gains and eventually ended slightly inside the negative territory. This resulted in some nervous start in our market on Wednesday. However, the recent undercurrent has been extremely strong and hence, with global peers rising this afternoon, our markets too recovered from lower levels to reclaim the 11300 mark on a closing basis. Thursday, we opened slightly higher in the wake of smart rally in global markets previous night. The lead extended marginally in the first half. But all of a sudden, the index dipped lower during the midsession. However the damage was not big as index recovered gradually and then slipped into a consolidation mode. Eventually, the weekly expiry on 13 august 2020 panned out flat precisely at 11300.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11400

It is clear that the bulls are not willing to give up; but at the same time, it doesn’t have enough strength to go beyond the sturdy wall of 11350-11400 as well. If we take a glance at the chart, we can now see a ‘Tri Star’ pattern. As the name suggests, it requires three consecutive small body candles in a specific position, where the middle candle is slightly higher than first and third candle. Taking this into consideration, we continue with our cautious stance on the market. If this pattern has to get confirmed, the Nifty needs to break below 11100, which will result in some immediate correction towards 11000-10800.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

In last couple of sessions, although the undercurrent has been positive, index is clearly lacking the momentum; because the real focus has shifted to the individual stocks, especially from the broader market. In fact, the banking space was the real charioteer as it kept showing sheer outperformance throughout the week. With all due respect to such positivity, we still remain a bit skeptical and would continue advocating caution around current levels. In such kind of euphoric situation, it is hard to take such view but the way overall things are panning out, does not give us comfort at all. In last four months, we never sounded such cautious, in fact strongly advised using all decline to go long; but we do not maintain the similar opinion now. We have been advocating some caution, because Nifty has approached a strong resistance zone of 11300- 11370 and although there is no sign of weakness yet, it will not be easy for the index to overcome this sturdy wall. Only a major trigger on the global or domestic front would be required if we have to unfold the next leg of the rally. Till then better to take some money off the table and wait for further development. Now with Friday’ price action, the chart depicts a ‘Doji’ pattern. This indicates some uncertainty and this clearly reflects what we explained in the above section. But with such price behavior, Friday’s low has now earned some significance. Going ahead, if we sneak and sustain below 11150, this will result in some immediate decline towards 11100 – 11000 - 10900 levels. So till the time, midcaps are offering better opportunities, one should keep capitalising on it; but we reiterate, aggressive bets are strictly not recommended and taking timely profits always makes sense to be on the safer side.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 14 AUGUST 2020

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Sideways trend continue in the market. On account of neutral global sentiments, the Indian indices trade sideways throughout the intraday trade and closed around 0.10% lower after the closing bell. Bulls tried hard to cross 11360 mark buy failed & closed the day at 11300. The Sensex lost 59 points and closed at 38310 mark. Bank Nifty index went down 67 points and closed at 22196 mark.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 13 AUGUST 2020

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Fund raising by the lending firm encouraged bulls to take nifty more up but unfortunately settled in red because global sentiments become neutral from green. The sensex touched a high of 38414 and a low of 38125 to finally settle at 38369 while nifty has managed to sustain above 11250. Nifty after opening gap down showed a labored rise during the day but failed to close in the positive.  Nifty lost 14 points and closed at 11308 levels while Bank Nifty lost 36 points and closed at 22264 mark.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 12 AUGUST 2020

Bulls become enthusiastic after the hope of new Covid-19 vaccine developed by Russia. The Sensex and the Nifty ended higher on Tuesday after touching five-month high during intraday trade as metal and select banking stocks witnessed buying. The Sensex ended 224 points higher at 38407 while the Nifty settled 52 points higher at 11322.Positive Asian shares amid signs of a recovery in Chinese economic activity powered gains in metal stocks, while less worse-than-feared domestic earnings reported by companies helped sentiment. 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 11 AUGUST 2020

The bulls continued to dominate as Nifty started the week above 11250 mark and headed towards 11340 levels. However, it failed to surpass recent swing high of 11341 and remained rage bound with the support at opening gap of 11230 marks. It closed positive and has been making higher lows from last five trading sessions which indicates overall bullish stance. Nifty managed to end with healthy gains of 0.5% at 11,273 levels. At close, the Sensex was up 141 points at 38182. Markets would react to the SC hearing on AGR dues and stocks especially from telecom and banking pack will remain in limelight. And since we’re closely following the global markets, US-China trade tension, currency and crude oil movement would also be actively tracked.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11300, 11400,11500

PIVOT POINT: 11200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11000, 10900, 10800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11250, 11350, 11430
PIVOT POINT: 11150

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11100, 11000, 10900
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Nifty started the trading for the week marginally negative above the 11050 mark. However, it corrected from the opening ticks itself and crept lower throughout the day to end below 10900, with a loss of over 180 points. The index started Tuesday’s session marginally positive in line with the global cues. However, the initial dip in first 15 minutes of trade was bought into and the index then rallied higher throughout the day to end with gains over 200 points. We had a v-shaped recovery on Tuesday to recoup Monday’s entire losses. Since the broader market was on a recovery mode; courtesy to decent rebound in banking stocks, the stage was all set for a positive start on Wednesday. Very much in-line with this, our markets opened higher and then continued its move northwards to surpass the 11200 mark in initial hours. However, all of a sudden, the Nifty took a complete nosedive not only to wipe off gains but also to sneak inside the negative terrain. After this, the market kept gyrating in a band of 90 points with some volatility to conclude on a flat note at 11100. We had a gap up opening on Thursday citing favorable cues from the global peers. Subsequently, the market slipped into a consolidation mode ahead of the RBI Monetary policy. The RBI eventually maintained its status quo and since there was no negative announcement, markets took it positively. Around the mid-session, strong buying emerged across the broader market and in the process, the Nifty went on to surpass the 11250 mark. However, once Nifty approached the sturdy wall of 11300, the bulls chose to take money off the table and due to weekly expiry, the volatility increased thereafter. Within no time, markets were significantly off highs. Fortunately, the selling got absorbed and the Nifty ended the weekly expiry precisely at 11200. Market ended flat on Friday as domestic coronavirus cases topped two million, taking the shine off market optimism following the central bank's relief measures for the economy. Most of the 11 major sectors saw moves of less than 1% in subdued trading, a day after a sharp rise thanks to the Reserve Bank of India's one-time loan restructuring scheme aimed at companies battered by the Covid-19 pandemic. India's coronavirus infections jumped by a daily record of 62,538 on Friday to 2.03 million, the world's third biggest caseload after the United States and Brazil.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 7 AUGUST 2020

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No rate cut in RBI policy brings the spark back in the market, the Indian indices ended around 1% higher from its Wednesday close. The Sensex shut shop 362 points and closed at 38025 levels while the Nifty went 98 points northward and closed at 11200 mark. Bank Nifty index scaled 132 points up and closed at 21642 levels. Indian benchmark indices came off highs but still closed out a volatile day with gains, following RBI commentary regarding interest rate outlook. Although expectations of a rate cut were there, RBI kept rates on hold, following a rise in inflation. However, it has indicated that monetary policy will remain accommodate until growth revives. We believe that if inflation remains under control, there will be further policy easing from the central bank. With this event out of the way, markets expected to turn focus back on earnings visibility and quality.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 6 AUGUST 2020

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Wednesday market ended on flat note, erasing the stellar gains made at open. Both Sensex and Nifty had topped their respective psychological levels intraday before giving in to the volatility during the session. The Sensex had hit the day's high of 38,140 points, but fell to the low of 37551. Sensex closed at 37,663 points, down 24 points from previous close while Nifty raised 6 points to settle at 11101. Nifty opened positive but failed to hold above 11225 levels and during the day it lost all its gains by drifting towards 11050 zones. However, it witnessed some bounce from lower levels and closed the session on a flat to positive note. Global cues were also positive while gold again jumped to record highs. Positive earnings reports are driving stocks and markets around the world, and the same trend is visible in the Indian markets too. Liquidity is a major driver for the markets and it is chasing companies which are declaring stable earnings or outlook. Uncertainties remain while in the near term markets will look forward to the commentary and RBI actions at the end of the MPC meeting tomorrow.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 5 AUGUST 2020

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Nifty back to track!!! After 4 day corrective sessions Nifty gained momentum on Tuesday 4 August 2020 with nifty hovering around 11000 mark. At close, the Sensex rallied 748 points to 37687 and the Nifty climbed 203 points to 11,095 despite rising coronavirus cases.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 4 AUGUST 2020

Week started on bearish note. Selling in financial counters took the nifty below 11000 mark. The Nifty closed the day near 10900 and formed a bearish candle on daily chart, as the closing was lower than the opening value. Considering the consistent weakness after the recent rally, we advise you to avoid long positions. The Nifty was decisively trading below its 50-day moving average and if it slips into some sort of multi-days downtrend, then corrective swing would get extended into the 10850–10800 zone. For the time being, strength in the index shall not be expected unless it closes above 11000 levels. Traders should avoid long positions and look for some signs of stability around 11100 whereas existing shorts should be squared off if the Nifty fails to close below 10900 in the next trading session.

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Resistance: 11000, 11100

Support: 10850, 10750

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11200, 11350,11500

PIVOT POINT: 11100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11000, 10900, 10800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11250, 11350, 11430
PIVOT POINT: 11050

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10950, 10900, 10850

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Trading for the week started marginally higher owing to favorable global cues. However, within a few moments, the lead disappeared to decouple with global peers first. After this what we witnessed was one of the rarest actions in our market. The Nifty and Bank Nifty looked completely divergent. The direction was similar (downwards) but the proportion of the decline was extremely wide. Looking at Nifty, it appeared as if markets are consolidating with mildly negative bias; but looking at banking index, it appeared as if there is no tomorrow. Yes, many times we see Bank Nifty underperforming the benchmark but Monday’s divergence was something different. Fortunately, Reliance and heavyweight IT counters were the saviors in case of Nifty, otherwise, taking their contribution out, the Nifty also would have closed with severe cuts. Tuesday too our markets opened higher as indicated by the SGX  Nifty; but unlike Monday, the lead was there to stay this time. After  a positive start, markets extended gains in the initial hour; but all of  a sudden, the banking index once again took a nosedive, resulted in  erasing of some gains in benchmark. However, post the midsession,  the entire market just took off and the smart recovery in banking  space added fuel to the spectacular rally to eventually reclaim the 11300 mark for the first time in last four months. Tuesday's tail end surge was followed by a flat start on Wednesday. As expected, in the initial trades, we witnessed a strong optimism to head towards the 11350 mark. Subsequently, the index consolidated with a hint of mild profit booking throughout the first half. However, post the mid-session, the selling aggravated in some of the heavyweights like Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and selective IT names. This resulted in a sharp decline to sneak below the 11200 mark. Due to some modest recovery at the end, the Nifty ended the session with a cut of nearly 100 points. After seeing a reality check on Wednesday, our markets started the Thursday slightly higher and then went on to extend the gains in the first half. However, around 11300, Nifty was unable to display similar strength and hence, the weak attempt eventually resulted in a sharp decline in the latter half. The selling augmented after breaking all important intraday supports one after another to test the 11100 mark. In the process, the July series expiry panned out on a disappointing note. The domestic stock market ended Friday's volatile session in the negative territory, weighed down by heavyweights Reliance Industries (RIL) and the HDFC twins. The Sensex ended 129 points lower at 37607 while the Nifty gave up the 11100-mark to settle at 11073, down 29 points.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 31 JULY 2020

F&O July series expired in the red due to selling in the financial & energy stocks however, pharma and IT positive for the day. The Sensex slipped 335 points to settle at 37736 levels. Nifty ended at 11102 down 101 points. Global markets faded as a status quo in policy by the US Fed Reserve failed to offset tepid business outlook and resurgence in virus cases around the world. Investors will be looking at commentary emerging from today’s meeting between the PM and key economic regulators. Stock specific action expected to continue.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 30 JULY 2020

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Nifty failed to continue its bullish momentum of the last session and witnessed selling pressure at higher levels. Markets traded volatile and settled with a cut of nearly 1%. After the initial uptick, nifty inched gradually lower as participants preferred to book some profit ahead of july monthly expiry tomorrow 30 July 2020. Besides, the existence of a critical hurdle around 11350 zone in the Nifty added to the pressure.Nifty has got stuck in range in between 11100 to 11350 zones and requires a decisive range breakout with follow up action to commence the next leg of rally. Now it has to continue to hold 11150 zones to extend its move towards 11355 then 11425 zones while on the downside key support exists at 11025 levels. Markets will react to the outcome of Fed meet in the early trade on Thursday i.e. 30 July 2020. The scheduled derivatives expiry combined with earnings would keep the participants on their toes. Indications are in the favor of further profit-taking in the nifty ahead so we advise booking profits in existing longs and wait for clarity to re-enter.

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Resistance: 11350, 11450, 11550

Support: 11150, 11050, 10950