BANKNIFTY PREDICTION FOR NEXT WEEK FEBRUARY 28 - MARCH 4, 2022

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PIVOT LEVELS Type R1 R2 R3 Pivot Point S1 S2 S3 Classic 38489 39380 40299 37570 36680 35761 34870 Fibonacci 38262 38689 39380 37570 36879 36452 35761 Camarilla 37765 37930 38096 37570 37433 37267 37101

Start of the week 21 February 2022 in the banking sector saw an action-packed session as the bulls overcame initial hiccups and helped the banking index settle in the green. The Bank Nifty index outperformed the benchmark index to end the day up 0.23% to 37686 levels in green. Tuesday saw a high volatility trading day in the banking sector where the initial loss was reduced by the end of the session. The Bank Nifty Index ended the volatile day on the downside, shedding 0.83% to close at 37372 levels. The Banknifty index endured a lackluster Wednesday trading, with initial gains being pared back in the second half to end the day on a silent note. The index has seemed stuck in a narrow range bound move for the past few trading sessions and has lost its luster. On Thursday, the Bank Nifty index fell sharply, over 5.79% amid the ongoing sell-off on escalating geopolitical tensions. The massive fall is likely the biggest one-day fall in months. The index broke the 200 DEMA & SMA to end the day at 35228, lagging the reference index. Technical supports were treated as numbers only and the index continued to fall like a bottomless pit. On Friday banknifty closed up by 1200 points at 36430. 

NIFTY OUTLOOK AND TRADING TIPS FOR FEBRUARY 28 - MARCH 4, 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16800, 17000, 17200

PIVOT POINT: 16500

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16300, 16100, 15800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16750, 16825, 16975

PIVOT POINT: 16550

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16400, 16300, 16200

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian stock market started the week on jitters as it tracked weakness in global stock markets. However, after the initial hiccup, the bulls managed to minimize the damage, leading to a decent mid-session recovery. After the showdown, the Nifty50 Index finally ended the day narrowly in favor of the bears with a doji-like candlestick formation, just above 17200. Our domestic market tumbled in early trading Tuesday amid the global market crackdown. The benchmark index, the Nifty50, tumbled over 2% to break the psychological 17,000 level and has hit a low of 16,843 in the early trades. Gradually the market gained control of the decline and saw some rebound from the bottom to end the day just below 17100. Tuesday's smart recovery was followed by a pleasant start to Wednesday at almost 17200 as indicated by the SGX Nifty. With some minor ups and downs, the index fluctuated in a narrow 100-point range for most of the session. However, towards the end of the session, some jitters were evident in the broader market, cutting any gains in no time. In fact, the leading index, the Nifty, ended up just in the red below 17100. Escalated geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine brought the global stock market crashing on Thursday. Our home market was also not spared from this ongoing crisis and so we experienced complete chaos everywhere. The benchmark index, the Nifty50, is down nearly 5%, likely its biggest single-day drop in many months. On Friday Benchmark indices broke a seven-day losing streak to gain over 2% amid supportive global markets and buying across sectors. To finish, the Sensex was up 1328 points, to 55858 and the Nifty was up 410 points, to 16658. Domestic indices rebounded strongly, following positive leads from global markets and benefited from lower valuations after the massive sell-off in the previous session a breather as the new US sanctions did not target Russia's oil exports nor its access to the Swift global payments network.

Market Outlook: 5 Reasons Why the March F&O Series Could Keep Investors Busy

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The February series was one of the most volatile series since April 2021 expired, NSE data shows, with an average daily fluctuation for the Nifty index is up to 1.45% (average difference between daily high and low). Last year the average daily swing was 1.55% in the April series and 1.77% in the March series before that. The average trailing-12-month F&O maturity average was 1.19%, with the July 2021 series being the least volatile with a daily average variation of 0.77%. The Nifty is down about 3.5% in the February F&O series. The March series to also be choppy given the numerous headwinds markets are facing. At a fundamental level, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remain extremely uncomfortable with India's valuation premium, analysts said, and have sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares over the past six months. The Indian stock market could remain unsettled in the coming weeks and offer good entry points in the event of major corrections. We recommend investors to focus on domestic cyclical companies such as banks, cement and staffing companies barring reopening of trades including multiplexes. The biggest risk may come from an oil shock for Indian equities as the reopening of the global economy could boost demand.

Here are the top five events that could swing markets either way in March:

Russia-Ukraine crisis: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis will keep the markets in suspense. Markets would closely monitor the resulting sanctions affecting deals with Russia and any spillover effects to neighboring European countries. On the positive side, a peace deal could send global equities soaring. Stock markets always overreact to initial events and eventually adjust to the fundamental consequences of events. Global equities, including Indian markets, could fall another 2% to 3% from current levels and would thereafter begin to adjust for the perceived potential fallout. After a few weeks, the war would either stop or continue longer as a proxy war. Global equities would adjust to the eventual fallout within two to three weeks.

Fed Meeting Outcome:  The Fed is expected to meet on March 15-16 to review interest rates. With inflation at a four-decade high, the Fed appears poised to hike rates at the policy meeting. According to experts, markets seem to have priced in a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike so far, any mismatch in expectations could lead to a knee-jerk reaction from the markets.

Crude Oil Prices: Brent Crude crossed the $100 mark in trading on Thursday after Russia ordered troops to invade eastern Ukraine. As the global economy battles inflation, rising oil prices can further fuel inflation, in turn disrupting financial math. If prices remain high for a long time, it will also impact corporate earnings growth in some sectors in the coming quarters.

Assembly Polls: Results of state elections in five states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab to be announced on March 10. The BJP is the ruling government in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa. While there may not be a direct correlation between the elections and the markets, any positive verdict for the BJP could boost sentiment in non-ruling states like Punjab and Manipur, while any negative outcome in the currently governed states could dampen sentiment.

Portfolio rebalancing: at the end of the financial year: FIIs have been net sellers in recent months on concerns that the interest rate cycle in the US could change. Given the magnitude of the selling, a portfolio rebalancing at the end of the year could impact select index heavyweights and therefore the index. On the other hand, while DIIs and retail investors have mostly been net buyers, they may want to book profits towards the end of the fiscal year.

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Markets traded lackluster in a tight range and eventually closed marginally lower. Initially, the benchmark opened marginally higher, however, the lack of follow-up buying limited the upside. It moved in a narrow band for most of the session, eventually ending in a collapse. Investors traded cautiously on the eve of the monthly F&O decline, which was also reflected in the overall sentiment. After trading in positive territory for most of the session, the indices fell slightly on selective profit taking in late trades. Also, with several challenges ahead, investors remain on the sidelines amid worries about the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the subsequent surge in crude oil prices. Technically, Nifty has formed a small bearish candle and is also holding a lower top formation that is broadly negative. We believe that narrow range activity is likely to continue in the near future. For the short-term traders, 17100 is immediate support and 17250 would be the key resistance level. Expect a quick pullback rally to the 17125-17150 levels if Nifty trades above 17100. However, if the index falls below 17100, further correction up to 17000-16900 is possible. Consequently, the Nifty index closed at 17063; down 0.2%. Noticeable actions on a broad front meanwhile kept the participants on their toes. Most sector indices, with the exception of real estate, ended flat to marginally lower in line with the benchmark. Markets are gradually drifting lower on excessive intraday volatility, mirroring global markets. Meanwhile, a mixed trend on the sector front adds to participants' concerns. In such a scenario, it is advisable to limit positions and wait for clarity on the next directional move.

Resistance: 17100, 17200, 17300

Support: 17000, 16900, 16800

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The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine issue and a sharp rise in oil prices forced global markets into a sharp decline. Indian market opened with heavy losses following the overnight decline in the global market and its negative impact on commodity prices. However, it managed to pare its losses during the late session. Continued outsourcing by FIIs has increased volatility, while DIIs are adding positions. Markets are witnessing heightened volatility as there is no immediate relief from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict which has been rapidly escalating. Additionally, rising oil prices have added to the negativity in the markets. Also, FNO's monthly expiry on Thursday would keep markets volatile. The Nifty had a significant gap lower on Feb 22 only to attract fresh buy support at lower levels. With the gap on the downside, the index tested the 16800 level, where it had taken support twice in the recent past. Markets continued their unprecedented move, correcting 2% before the open and later recovering in the 2nd half. Investors are advised to exercise caution in their trades. We expect small and mid-caps to lead the market recovery after the end of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Benchmark indices closed lower for a fifth straight day on weak global signals due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Sensex ended up up 383 points at 57300 and the Nifty up 114 points at 17092.

Nifty has managed to close above the crucial 17000 level for now. 16850 has been a key support level for the market for the last month. However, global weakness and ongoing FII selling could add more pressure in the near term. Several support parameters are present near 16850 absorbing selling pressure. Regarding the price pattern, Nifty has formed a triangle pattern on the daily chart and tested the lower end of the pattern today. The index is then expected to recover towards 17450-17550. Bullish potential remains intact as long as the Nifty stays above 16850 on a closing basis. For Nifty 16900 will act as a very strong support, on a break we could see the 16800 level and if this level is also broken then the next stop will be near 16600 levels. On the upside 17150 will act as a very strong resistance, if Nifty breaks above these levels the next stop will be around 17250 which if broken will take the markets to the 17400 level.

Resistance: 17275, 17325, 17400

Support: 17175, 17125, 17050

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 22 FEB 2022

Markets remained volatile in continuation of the trend and lost almost half a percent. After a weak start, recovery in select banking, IT and auto majors gradually pulled the index higher, but the resurgence of selling pressures in the last few hours once again erased all gains. Finally, the Nifty index closed 0.3% lower to close at 17231. The concerns and pessimism of the last three trading sessions carried over into today's trading and Nifty traded as shaky and choppy. Indeed, the benchmark Nifty seems to be having a hard time staging a meaningful rebound. Blame it on tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's hawkishness still exudes negative sentiment. Markets are in wait-and-watch mode in line with global peers, closely monitoring the Russia-Ukraine crisis for clues. Meanwhile, the index's volatile swings combined with the selling in broader markets are making life difficult for traders. We therefore recommend limiting positions and keeping existing ones hedged until markets stabilise. Market closed lower for the fourth straight day on February 21 amid volatility from the Ukraine crisis. At the close, the Sensex was up 149 points to 57683 and the Nifty was up 69 points to 17206.

Technically, Nifty’s still paints a bearish picture on the long-term charts; Downside risk seen at 16400 level. From a chart technical perspective, the technical landscape will only improve significantly above the Nifty 17800 level. For Tuesday trading until the 17425 Nifty’s level is resistance, volatility will be the hallmark and the persistent bulls should strictly not take intraday strength as the light at the end of the tunnel. Expect downfall under the Nifty 17050. Technically, after the morning fall, Nifty took the support at 17050 and bounced back sharply, but once again it failed to close above the 20-day SMA, which is heavily negative. A long leg doji formation has formed on the daily charts, the pattern of which indicates bulls and bears indecisiveness. We believe 17225-17275 would be the immediate resistance level on the Nifty. For the bulls above, the index could go as high as 17350. On the upside, trading below 17150 could amplify weakness to 17000-16800.

Resistance: 17275, 17325, 17400

Support: 17175, 17125, 17050

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 21 FEB TO 25 FEB 2022

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17300, 17500, 177000

PIVOT POINT: 17200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17000, 16800, 16600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17300, 17400, 17500

PIVOT POINT: 17250

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17200, 17100, 17000

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian stock market started the week gapping lower amid the slowdown in global markets. The stock markets saw a sharp sell-off, with the broader indices plummeting in early trading and Nifty breaking the psychological support at 17000 marks. Gradually, selling intensified and the index continued to fall to hit a new calendar year low. Finally, the benchmark index settled in red slightly below 16850 with a massive drop of over 3%. On Tuesday, the market halted free fall and gained some momentum in early trading amid a strong recovery in the fallen stocks. The domestic market shrugged through the mixed global signals and advanced with authority. The benchmark Nifty50 index was up over 3% to end the day at a level of 17352. On Wednesday, our market started the session on a volatile front despite positive global cues, but quickly found its feet to shoot higher. Some corrections were triggered in the second half, erasing any gains in the benchmark Nifty50 index. After an intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, Nifty ended the day muted down just 0.17% at 17322. On Thursday, our domestic market endured a lackluster day of trading amidst the weekly schedule that echoed the mixed global signals. The benchmark index remained range-bound throughout the session with no clear direction. Finally, the lackluster session ended on a negative note just above the 17300 level. On Friday, the market ended lower for the third straight day on February 18, dragged by pharmaceutical, real estate, oil and gas stocks. Finally, the Sensex was up 59 points at 57832 and the Nifty was up 28 points at 17276.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

The index resisted breaching the 17500 level and saw some correction, suggesting a stable wall. On the downside, 17100 is expected to provide crucial support for the index and until the mentioned zone is not breached, a range bound move is expected. Looking ahead, indecisiveness was felt among market participants looking at the technical structure and moods.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Nifty remains in a medium-term uptrend while consolidation is expected in the short-term. The trading range is between 17000 and 17500. Expect limited upside potential for February series with reversal only seen above 17500. An inverted hammer pattern has formed on the daily chart of Nifty, often indicating a bullish reversal. On the downside, 17200 could serve as support for the falling market. Trend should remain bullish for the coming days as long as 17200 holds. On the top end there is a key resistance at 17500. The market is stuck in a range between 17200 and 17600. Until we cross either level, we won't see any meaningful movement. A break on one side results in a 300-400 point move.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 18 FEB 2022

Benchmark indices ended lower in another volatile session on February 17th with Nifty holding above the 17300 level. The Sensex ended up up 104 points at 57892 and the Nifty up 17 points at 17304. ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank and UPL were the biggest Nifty losers, while Tata Consumer Products, ONGC, HDFC, Reliance Industries and HDFC Life were among the winners. At the sector level, the Bank Index slipped 1 %, while the Power Index rose nearly 2 %. BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended lower. 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 17 FEB 2022

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Markets remained in volatile territory as the rollercoaster trading session finally ended, with bears emerging as winners on late selling pressure. The situation in the Russia-Ukraine standoff may have improved somewhat, investors are taking a cautious stance on other concerns such as a likely US rate hike and rising inflation. However, falling western markets prompted a quick sell-off during the close of business. Market indices ended negative in the highly volatile Feb. 16 session dragged by auto, banking, metals and IT stocks. At the close, the Sensex was up 145 points to 57996 and the Nifty was up 30 points to 17322. We remain under selling pressure at higher levels. 17600 is the key resistance level and until we break that on a closing basis the trend will continue to be sideways to bearish. We are in a trading zone and it is imperative that we are patient as the stops are large and unforgiving. Technically, the Nifty failed to sustain above the 50-day SMA, which is broadly negative. For the bulls, 17300 and 17250 would be the key support zones, while 17400 -17500 would be a key hurdle for the traders.

Resistance: 17350, 17425, 17575

Support: 17200, 17000, 16800

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 16 FEB 2022

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It was more of a recovery rally after markets has been on a down curve for the past few sessions. The recovery came despite mixed cues in the Asian pack. However, lingering concerns such as geopolitical tensions, US interest rate hikes and rising inflation could keep investors on edge and markets could remain volatile. After the two days, the carnage market finally caught its breath as after a positive open and an index showing strength throughout the session level, the session closed at the 17352 level with a gain of 509 points. While Bank Nifty ended the session at 38170 for a gain of 1261 points.  Markets rebounded strongly after yesterday's sell-off, gaining nearly 3%. After the initial bullish trend, the benchmark fell for the first hour, but news that some of Russia's troops are being withdrawn from the border with Ukraine lifted sentiment throughout the day. The rally was largely driven by healthy buying in sectors such as auto, IT and bank stocks.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 15 FEB 2022

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On 14 February 2022 we witnessed bloodbath in the Indian markets with the broader index falling more than 3%. The sell-off was mainly due to tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Almost all major indices around the world were red. Panic selling in global markets took its toll on domestic benchmark indices as investors worried about geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices. With growing concern over the prospect of a likely US interest rate hike, overseas funds exited Indian equities at a rapid pace, which also caused Nifty to slip below the psychological 17k mark. The Indian market fell sharply amid geopolitical tensions. These geopolitical tensions are causing crude oil prices and the dollar index to rise sharply, which is another negative trigger for emerging markets like India. We are seeing continued selling of FIIs while DIIs flows could also drop ahead of the big LIC IPO. Inflation and the environment of rising interest rates in the US continue to worry the market and these geopolitical tensions are creating a double whammy for global markets. At close, the Sensex was down 1747 points at 56405, and the Nifty was down 532 points at 16842.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING FOR 14 FEB TO 18 FEB 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17500, 17700, 18000

PIVOT POINT: 17300

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17000, 16800, 16600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17400, 17500, 17600

PIVOT POINT: 17300

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17200, 17100, 17000

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Our domestic market started the week on a soft note amid mixed Asian bourses and the sell-off deepened with no sign of a recovery in the benchmark index. A strong sell-off among market participants also dampened sentiment. Finally, Nifty ended the session on the downside, losing about 1.73% for the third straight session to settle at the 17214 level. On Tuesday, the Indian stock market saw a strong whiplash action, with a V-shaped recovery paring the benchmark index's initial losses and putting an end to the selling frenzy. Although Nifty ended the day subdued with a sheer 0.15% gain at 17239, indecisiveness was felt among market participants as heightened volatility mounted and the index hovered near its key support zone. The Indian stock market started with a gap up on Wednesday and remained range bound throughout the day. The benchmark index Nifty50 saw follow-up buying on a strong finish to end the day higher at 17463, gaining 1.14%. The broad-based buying has spread some bullish sentiment across the stock markets. On Thursday, the domestic market rose after the RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announcement, which met street expectations and maintained the status quo. Strong bullish sentiment spread across sectors, propelling the benchmark index Nifty50 higher to end the day on a firm note. The index is up almost a percent and closed a little above the 17600 mark. Sensex and Nifty were weak in trading on Friday, each falling over 1% on weak global cues. The higher-than-expected US inflation data unsettled investors amid fears of an aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. US inflation rose 7.5%, a four-decade high, prompting hawkish comments from a Fed official. In Asia, stocks in Shanghai and Japan rose while South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia fell. Sensex fell 773 points to close at 58152; Nifty lost 260 points to finish at 17345. IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel and NTPC were the only top performers while TechM was the top loser.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

The benchmark index slipped below the budget day's low ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome this week, suggesting a sign of caution in the market. Selective blue chips saw a sharp correction, with the bears shrugging off all technical supports. In terms of levels, the 17000 level is the key support for the benchmark, followed by the 16800 swing low, while a break below it could cause major concerns from investors. On the upside, the 50 percent Fibonacci is expected to act as an immediate resistance zone around 17600, followed by 17800 in the near future.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Nifty found resistance around 17635 and slid lower towards the gap in the daily timeframe. A red-body candlestick is visible on the daily timeframe. Once again, the index slipped below the 50 EMA. The trend looks sideways to negative in the short term. On the lower end, support is visible at 17200-17000. On the other hand, Nifty needs to break above 17650 to change the current downtrend.

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After a quiet start ahead of US inflation data and the state elections at home, indices rallied following the RBI's accommodative stance that kept rates on the status quo. As the volatility index cooled, metals led the rally, which was well supported by real estate and mortgage companies in the broader market. The rally trickled down to IT & Financials in afternoon trade, buoyed by a lower inflation forecast ahead. The market continued its winning streak into the third day after the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged and continued its accommodative stance at its February 10 monetary policy meeting. At the close, the Sensex was up 460 points to 58926 and the Nifty was up 142 points to 17605. The domestic market maintained bullish momentum, supported by strong global cues and positive RBI policy. Although the market expected the RBI to moderate its monetary policy tone, the central bank surprised with a very dovish statement, maintaining its accommodative stance, modest inflation forecast and FY23 GDP growth of 7.8%. The global market rallied ahead of the release of US inflation data supported by healthy earnings results. Nifty trades with positive momentum for the Feb series. Support stands at 17100. Above 17600, open interest buildup can only be seen at 17900-18000 strikes, suggesting possible resistance. The FII segment has seen dissolution in the index options segment, which supports the positive bias.

Resistance: 17350, 17425, 17575

Support: 17200, 17000, 16800

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Strong indications in global markets pushed local benchmarks higher as investors bought struggling stocks. Buying was seen in bank, home and auto stocks on hopes that interest rates could remain unchanged in this week's credit policy. The market opened on a gap up note and showed strength throughout the session, closing the session at the 17463 level for a gain of 197 points. While Bank Nifty ended the session at 38610 for a gain of 581 points. Nifty recovered today ahead of tomorrow's weekly expiry. Looking at the charts, the quality of the candle suggests that the market may not expect anything negative ahead of the RBI credit policy. Nifty saw a long green candle to close on the day's high and this candle follows the previous day's bullish hammer. Nifty made a higher low yesterday than the low of the previous January 25, 2022 low. It stands to reason that Nifty should rally above the recent high at 18055 to complete the AB=CD pattern.

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Markets ended slightly higher in a highly volatile trading session, taking a breather after the recent decline. The benchmark continued to fall after the flat start, but the recovery in select index majors helped the index erase losses. Finally, the Nifty Index closed at around 17266 levels. A mixed trend was observed among sectors, with real estate, capital goods and industrials ending losses, while the metals and PSU bank indexes posted modest gains. Broader markets remained under pressure as both mid-cap and small-cap closed down 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively. We've been on a rollercoaster ride since the Union Budget and the planned MPC meeting should keep volatility high. Also, the global cues do not paint a favorable picture either, so participants should maintain their cautious stance and limit leveraged positions. The indices Sensex and Nifty ended a choppy session with modest gains on Tuesday 8 February, ending a three-day losing streak amid mixed trends in global markets. Gains in auto, metals, pharma and PSU bank stocks drove the leading indices higher, although losses in IT and oil & gas stocks limited upside. The Nifty opened on a positive note only to attract a fresh round of selling near 17350. The index then fell towards the 78.6% retracement of the recent rise, i.e. Overall, the structure shows that the index is forming a triangular pattern and found support as it neared the bottom of the pattern, which is near 17050. Over here, the Nifty is expected to form a base for itself and begin to recover. On the higher side, 17350-17450 is a short-term hurdle zone, beyond which expect major upside potential to 17700 . If we break 17000 on close base, market can further fall to 16900-16800. On the upside there is resistance at 17500 and we would need to close above it for the index to turn bullish.

Resistance: 17350, 17425, 17575

Support: 17200, 17000, 16800

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Domestic markets are volatile ahead of the state election, seeing a sharp decline led by FII selling and weak global signals. Indian markets opened in red after mixed Asian market signals as investors continued to monitor the situation surrounding the Ukraine crisis and digest US jobs data and central bank moves in the region. During the afternoon session, markets added losses to continue weak trading amid continued foreign fund outflows. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn up to Rs 6,834 crore from Indian markets in the first four trading sessions in February. US stock markets were under pressure as strong US jobs data raised fears of a stronger-than-expected Fed rate hike, pushing bond yields higher. The market ended February 7th lower for the third straight day as auto, FMCG, IT, banking, healthcare, real estate and capital goods stocks sold off. At the close, the Sensex was down 1023 points to 57621 and the Nifty down 302 points to 17213.

Market volatility is likely to continue given the high probability of a rate hike by the RBI given domestic inflation and tightening monetary policy by global central banks. The forthcoming MPC will meet in the shadow of the Union Budget for FY23, which has rightly maintained its focus on growth but at the cost of heavy market borrowing. At the upcoming meeting, the MPC is likely to acknowledge the inevitability of monetary policy normalization and the challenges we face as global central banks accelerate their fight against inflation. However, the recent sharp rise in bond yields may have already tightened local financial conditions a little too quickly for the RBI's comfort. We therefore expect MPC to start a gradual tightening cycle and turn its focus a bit more on inflation as Brent crude is near $100 a barrel. First, we expect the MPC to normalize the repo rate reverse repo corridor (to 25 basis points) over the next two sessions, starting with a 20 basis point hike in the reverse repo rate in February. Subsequently, the MPC could change its accommodative monetary policy stance to neutral and eventually start a moderate rate hike cycle. With monetary policy normalization underway, RBI's support for bond markets is likely to remain limited going forward, even if headline inflation stays within the RBI's target range. Difficult as it may be, RBI must juggle non-disruptively between its goals of normalizing policy and managing the government's lending program in FY23. 

BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & SUPPORT RESISTENCE LEVEL FOR NEXT WEEK 7 FEB TO 11 FEB 2022

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The Nifty Bank index closed on a negative note on Friday. Shares of HDFC Bank up 0.57% ended the day as top gainers in the pack. On the other hand, AU Small Finance Bank down 2.68%, Punjab National Bank down 2.58 % RBLBANK down 2.54% Federal Bank down 2.08% and State Bank of India down 1.81% finished as the top losers of the day. The Nifty Bank index closed 0.57% down at 38789. Next week niftybank will be in bullish trend resistance for the next week will be 39191-38854 while the support will be 37759-38592. In the coming session banknifty will react on sbin result & RBI monetary policy 

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	39191	39592	39907	38876	38475	38,160	37759
Fibonacci	39150	39319	39592	38876	38603	38434	38160
Camarilla	38854	38920	38986	38876	38723	38658	38592

NIFTY OUTLOOK & VIEW ON SBIN RESULT & RBI MONETARY POLICY 7 FEB TO 11 FEB 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17615, 17724, 17835

PIVOT POINT: 17475

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17225, 17175

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTYDAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17550, 17650, 17750

PIVOT POINT: 17450

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17250, 17150

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTYThe global markets feel good and started the new trading week with happy tones. After the gap opened, the market gradually rose to test the 17400 level in the middle of the session. Since then there has been little activity in the benchmark index. This is because range bound moves were seen, suggesting some gains towards the end. Finally, Nifty ended a riveting session above 17300, adding nearly 1.5% to the Bulls kitty. Similar to the previous session, our markets started with a decent move higher on Tuesday on the back of favorable global cues. That early morning lead extended nearly to 17600 before the budget speech. However, once it started, the market went into a consolidation mode and waited for a trigger from this event. The moment it ended we had a little bout of sharp profit booking around mid-session. In the blink of an eye the market not only erased all gains but also slid into negative territory to test the key 17250 support. Fortunately, this turned out to be an overreaction by cautious traders and hence the powerful bulls jumped at the opportunity to take the market once again to the daily high. The Indian stock market had an upbeat trading day on Wednesday, taking inspiration from buoyant global markets. After the budget day, strong sentiment was spread by the participants who helped the indices surge higher and ended Wednesday with a strong bullish candlestick pattern. Broad-based buying impacted all sectors and the advance-decline ratio has further eliminated optimism among market participants, with 40 on the long and 9 on the lagging side of the NIFTY50. The Indian stock market ended its winning streak for three consecutive days and saw decent profit booking at higher levels on Thursday. The mixed global cues played a major role in the session correction, which intensified in the second half as the index tested the intraday low of 17511 until the last minute and ended the day down 1.24 % at the level of 17560 finished. Benchmark indices ended negative in the volatile Feb. 4 session as selling was seen in PSU bank, auto and real estate stocks. At the close, the Sensex was down 143 points or 0.24% to 58644 and the Nifty down 44 points or 0.25% to 17516. Approximately 1554 stocks are up, 1704 stocks are down, and 87 stocks are flat.

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The market broke three days winning momentum on February 3 with the Nifty closing underneath 17600 dragged by capital products, realty, IT and oil & gas stocks. At, near, the Sensex was down 770 focuses or 1.29% at 58788, and the Nifty was down 219 focuses or 1.24% at 17560. Almost 1663 offers have progressed, 1602 offers declined, and 81 offers are unaltered. Markets seen benefit taking after the later surge and finished with a cut of over a percent. Blended worldwide assumptions driven to a level begin in any case benefit booking over segments especially IT, back and realty dragged the benchmark lower as the day advanced. Thus, the Nifty finished around the day’s below 17600 at 17560 levels. The broader indices too misplaced within the extend of 0.1-0.7%. The Nifty fizzled to support over the 20 DMA & 61.8% retracement of the Jan decrease i.e. 17770. On the drawback, it plunged into the later hole

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Markets proceeded to exchange buoyant and finished with picks up of over 1%. Positive worldwide signals combined with budget-led buoyancy activated a gap-up begin and the benchmark slowly crept higher as the day advanced. Consequently, Nifty settled around the day’s high to shut at 17780 levels. Among the divisions, managing an account and financials were within the center from the starting, closely taken after by media, healthcare and IT. In line with the move, the advertise breadth was too slanted unequivocally on the progressing side.