NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 20 JUNE TO 24 JUNE 2022

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 15400, 15800, 16200

PIVOT POINT: 15100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15000, 14800, 14600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 15350, 15450, 15550

PIVOT POINT: 15250

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15150, 15050, 14950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The weak macro factors related to rising inflation and upcoming Fed policy have wreaked havoc on the global stock market. The impact was also seen in our equities section, which started the week of June 13, 2022 on a weak note, with an initial drop of almost 2% that worsened throughout the day. The tepidness among participants was evident as the market showed no signs of reversal or strength at the lower levels. Finally, the benchmark index ended the day down over 2.64% to the 15774 level. The Indian stock market started with another gap to the downside on Tuesday, June 14, 2022, tracking the decline in global stock markets after confirming that Wall Street had reached the bear market milestone. However, our market retaliated shortly after the opening bell and gradually appreciated the momentum to march higher. Although hesitancy was felt among participants at the higher level, this detracted from initial gains. And with the market whipping action, the benchmark index Nifty50 ended the day down another 0.27% in the critical support zone in red. The domestic market got off to a slow start on Wednesday 15 June 2022 with the benchmark index remaining in a tight range for most of the period with no clear direction. Reluctance ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting was evident among market participants. Finally, the lackluster session ended on the downside, shedding 0.25%, just below the 15700 level. Our market followed the positive global stock markets and started on Thursday 16th June 2022 with a gap to the upside. However, no significant strength was seen at the higher levels and the benchmark index gradually slipped to break the critical support of the 15700 odd zone. The general sell off further put the damper on the market sentiment with the Nifty eventually ending the day down over 2% at the 15360 level. Even the most fervent FOMO gnome had a crisis of conviction as a number of central banks followed the Fed's lead in raising interest rates. Taiwan rose 12.50 basis points, the Bank of England rose 25 basis points and the Swiss National Bank shocked markets by raising interest rates by 50 basis points. It was probably the SNB that brought back the camels, because if the Swiss are worried about inflation, then we should all be. The Fed's policy statement, along with the updated economic outlook, solidified the Fed's move to a single-mandate central bank and underscored the priority of bringing inflation above all to 2%. With slower growth and higher forecasts for the unemployment rate, the Fed's latest economic forecasts underscore what we think has been a key pivot in its outlook as policymakers seek to actively contain demand. Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and NSE Nifty50 fell on Friday 17 june 2022 following a sell-off on Wall Street as caution persisted in most global markets amid growing worries about recession. Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the sixth consecutive session on June 17 with Nifty below 15300. At close, the Sensex was down 135 points at 51360, and the Nifty was down 67 points at 15293.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 14800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 15600

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The market is catching up with the reality that tight monetary policy is the only card on the table that will linger with high inflation. As a result, the global economy is bound to continue to slow, which will impact corporate earnings, as evidenced by the decline in US retail sales in the MoM. Valuations continue to trade on the slightly upside of long-term averages and FIIs continue in sell mode. Stocks trading at high valuations and sectors such as IT and metals are the most affected companies. In such a situation, the issue is capital preservation by investing in a balanced portfolio of equity, debt and cash. Markets saw frantic selling late in the trading session after a sharp fall in major European indices prompted investors to further trim positions. Rising interest rates to stem the risk of inflation and falling crude oil prices have investors worried the world could be heading for a major economic slowdown if demand falters. Markets plummeted on the weekly expiry day, losing over 2%, following weak global leads. 

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Indian benchmark indices closed lower on June 15, continuing their losing streak for a fourth consecutive month as market participants awaited Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decisions expected later in the day. At the close the Sensex was down 152 points at 52541 and the Nifty was down 40 points at 15692. After a positive start, the market erased gains and remained volatile throughout the session, with selling in Power, IT, Metals, Oil & Gas, Real Estate and FMCG names. Emerging fears of stagflation and volatility ahead of the Fed meeting decision forced the market to close flat on a negative bias. An aggressive rate hike of 50-75 basis points has been largely priced in by the market, but updated economic and interest rate forecasts will guide the trend going forward. The Nifty remained volatile ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. Index lower support is at 15600 where a fresh put write has been observed and if it fails to hold above there will be more selling pressure. The upper terminal resistance is at 15800, where the highest open interest is built on the call side. Banknifty had a range bound session and will see sharp moves on both sides post FOMC. The immediate hurdle at the top end is 34100 and a break will see short positions re-covered. The lower support lies in the 33200-32800 zone, which used to act as a demand zone.

Resistance: 15800, 16000, 16200

Support: 15600, 15400, 16200 

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Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended a volatile session lower on Tuesday, as global investors remained wary of the impact of late-breaking US inflation on already hawkish central banks and the broader impact on economic growth. Losses in financials, oil & gas and FMCG stocks dragged the leading indices lower, but gains in select IT, pharmaceuticals and metals meters limited the downside. Broader markets also failed to hold on to intraday gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices falling 0.2 % and 0.6%, respectively. India's equity benchmarks posted losses after oscillating between gains and losses for most of the session. Energy, oil and gas stocks slumped as Sensex and Nifty extended their losing streak into day three. The Sensex lost 0.29% (over 150 points) to 52693. The 30-stock gauge traded in a range of over 600 points between 53095 and 52459. The Nifty also fell by a similar magnitude to 15730. Nifty 50 closes the day above the good 15750 resistance zone and if the index stays above this level for upcoming trading sessions, we might see further upward movement towards the 15900 -16100 level which represents another resistance zone on the upside. Crucial support for Nifty 50 stands at 15600 while Nifty might face some resistance at 16200.

Resistance: 15800, 16000, 16200

Support: 15600, 15400, 16200

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The market crashed in full force on the first day of the week of June 13, 2022 as benchmark indices collapsed below their crucial levels on general selling pressures. Markets started the week with a sharp dip, continuing the prevailing correction phase. Fear of aggressive rate hikes weighed on sentiment and prompted a gap-down start, but the recovery over the past hour pared some losses. Investors have become concerned that central banks will raise interest rates more aggressively in a bid to fight inflation in the coming months, which in turn will weigh on economic growth and put pressure on margins. The correction in global markets is due to a double whammy of forthcoming interest rate hikes and central bank balance sheet reductions. Consequently, the Nifty index closed at 15774; down 2.6%. At the sector level, all indices ended in losses, with IT, metals and banks being the biggest losers. The broader indices also lost more than 2.5% each. All eyes would be on the CPI data to be released tonight. In addition, Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting would add further volatility. Nifty has the March 2022 low, i.e. H. around 15,671 levels, almost retested and its collapse would pave the way for another drop towards 15,450 levels. Higher than expected US inflation data fueled the already battered market which was discounting a 50 basis point hike in Fed interest rates. The weakening rupee continued FII selling coupled with expectations of higher domestic CPI reads gripped domestic markets with fear. Markets were also bearish on continued strength in Brent crude prices, with 10-year bond yields rising to 3.20% from recent lows of 2.80%, and the expected CPI numbers. We will continue to trade with high volatility however medium to long term risk takers should start entering the market as this could be in the latter stages of consolidation. The fear and uncertainty was clearly visible in the Indian VIX which is up over 15% at 22.50. If the Nifty breaks below 15600 and closes it will technically be a major downside event for the market. In such a situation, the index would fall to the 15550-15450 level in the short term. It is prudent to reduce a weak long position below the 15600 level. Also, Banknifty could drop to the 32000 level if it finishes below 33500. In the event of a recovery, the 15950-16250 zone would act as a hurdle. We recommend using rebound to create shorts in the index until we see signs of a reversal. Stocks, on the other hand, present opportunities on both sides, so plan accordingly.

Resistance: 15950, 16050, 16150

Support: 15700, 15600, 15500

NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 13 JUNE TO 17 JUNE 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16300, 16500, 16700

PIVOT POINT: 16100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15900, 15700, 15500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16250, 16350, 16450

PIVOT POINT: 16150

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16050, 15950, 15850

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Our markets started the week on June 6, 2022 sluggishly as indicated by the SGX Nifty. Throughout the day, global signals improved greatly, but our markets did not move in unison. In the first hour, Nifty hit Thursday's low around 16450 and then stayed in a narrow range for the rest of the day with a modest recovery in the second half. Finally, the Nifty ended the session with a negligible loss just above the 16550 level. Similar to the previous session, we had a slow start on Tuesday 7th June 2022, convincingly below the 16500 level as reported by the SGX Nifty on displayed early morning. Later in the day, the weakness extended somewhat to sneak below 16400 crucial support towards mid-session. Fortunately, the corrective movement continued in the second half and indeed, with the help of a modest recovery in some of the heavyweights (particularly banks), the Nifty managed to defend the 16400 at the end. Global markets were looking somewhat cheerful on Wednesday morning 8th June 2022 and as a result we started the session with a decent upward gap a little below the 16500 level. In the early trades we started cutting gains and as we got closer to the RBI policy announcement, Nifty slipped slightly below 16300. However, after the announcement, the markets took off and within a very short time we were back in positive territory. At one point we even surpassed 16500 by a small margin. Markets were all set for a longer move but after mid-trade traders got nervous again and as a result we were back to the morning lows. Finally, the volatile session ended at 16350 with a loss of almost four tenths of a % from the previous close. The US markets had a weak session overnight and as a result the SGX Nifty indicated a sluggish start on Thursday 9th June 2022. Accordingly, our markets opened lower and showed the initial nerves, the leading index settled around the 16250 mark. In fact, some level of buying was observed in many of the heavyweight constituents throughout the day. This momentum accelerated in the second half of the day to end the session with over seven tenths of a % convincing gains above 16400. On Friday 10 June 2022, benchmark indices erased all of the previous days' gains, falling almost 2% after weakness in global counterparts amid fears of faster policy tightening. Investors are awaiting US inflation data due later today. The Nifty50 plunged 288 points, or 1.75 %, to 16,190 and the BSE Sensex fell 1,053 points, or 1.9 %, to 54,267 as all sector indices traded red.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16200; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17000

The mood in the June series of Nifty remains weak. Selling advisable in the short term if the value increases. Only a mature trend reversal will change the monthly outlook. Select stocks are available at medium-term value levels while the risk/reward trade-off remains broadly skewed. Liquidity remains the main reason for the current correction phase.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The Nifty50 can continue its momentum to higher levels as long as it holds 16300. Here's what the technical charts are suggesting. The 16300 level will dictate the trend for traders, above that the momentum is likely to continue into the 16500-16600 zone. A new round of selling is possible if the index trades below 16,350 which could lead to 16,250-16,200 levels. The Nifty has formed a long bull candle at the low on the daily chart, indicating the bullish penetrating line pattern in a bullish sign. Further upward movements are to be expected in the short term. A lack of strength in slipping below 16,400 eventually caused the market to stage a strong rally.

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Stock Market Highlights: Indian stock benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rallied in a weak rebound on Thursday, driven by strength in oil & gas, financials, IT and pharmaceutical stocks. Both benchmark indices ended a four-day dry spell, a day after the RBI announced an expected 50 basis point hike in interest rates. However, weakness in metal stocks limited upside potential. Broader markets also ended the volatile session in the green, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices up 0.5% and 0.2% , respectively. Investors around the world awaited news from central bank meetings to get more clarity on the impact of worsening inflation on interest rates and economic growth. Sensex and Nifty ended their 4-day losing streak Thursday as bulls pushed benchmark indices higher. The Sensex rose 427 points, to 55320, while the Nifty rose 121 points, or to 16478. 

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Indian indices on Wednesday closed lower, extending run of losses, dragged by heavy selling pressure in market heavyweights Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and ITC as RBI's monetary policy committee decided to increase repo rate by 50 bps to 4.9%. The Sensex fell 214 points to close at 54892, while Nifty declined 60 points to end at 16356. After today’s 50 basis points hike in the repo rate, the Reserve Bank of India still has 75 bps to go.  The RBI has raised its inflation forecast by a massive 100 bps, which shows that the central bank has anticipated every possible adverse effect. While the cash reserve ratio was untouched, it is still on the table to be used. In February policy, the RBI could take a pause to assess if the government’s fiscal position is changing. The new fiscal year budget would be out and the fiscal position for FY23 would be known. The RBI would want to assess how the government’s fiscal position for the next year would be.  It could resume its rate hiking cycle in April. Technically, the pattern signals a weak trend with range bound action. Nifty is currently placed at the edge of breaking below the crucial support of 16,300 levels (support as per change in polarity and daily 10 and 20 day EMA). But minor buying is still emerging from the lows.

Resistance: 16450, 16625, 16800

Support: 16300, 16150, 16000

 

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Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak to a third day on June 7 amid fears that the Reserve Bank of India will hike interest rates the next day when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concludes its meeting. At the close, the Sensex fell 568 points to 55107 and the Nifty lost 153 points to end the day at 16416. Asian equity markets were mixed on Tuesday after a sell-off in US bonds on fears of higher interest rates. A surprise 50 basis point rate hike in Australia (the highest in 22 years) raised concerns about monetary tightening ahead of US inflation data and a European Central Bank meeting this week. Crude oil continued to trade at $120 a barrel, which could further fuel inflation. Not only CPI inflation but also US inflation would be closely watched by the Street this week. Volatility in the market forced investors to remain on the sidelines ahead of the RBI policy announcement as the market had priced in an increase of up to 50 basis points for the repo rate and CRR but any further action to limit liquidity had an impact would have on the market trend. Monetary policy measures aside, the RBI's growth and inflation forecasts would drive the market trend. We expect a rate hike of 40-50bps on June 8th and expect rates to hit 5.15% by August/October. The government's recent actions will help keep the rate hike relatively contained, although the determination of the final rate will be much more data-dependent given changing global conditions. Technically, the downside risk for the Nifty is 16620. If make-or-break support holds at 16620 then expect bulls to regroup with aggressive targets at 16875 -16950 with a week-to-week perspective. The Nifty 200-DMA can be seen at the 17250 mark. Traders should be particularly wary of interest-rate sensitive companies and favor less volatile stocks for day trading. On the index front, the bias will turn negative below 16400 otherwise the consolidation will continue with the upper band at 16550-16650.

Resistance: 16500, 16600, 16700

Support: 16400, 16300, 16200

NIFTY PREDICTION & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 07 JUNE 2022

Markets traded lackluster and ended almost unchanged amid mixed indications on 6 june 2022. The start was muted on weak global signals, but recovery in metals and selective buying in financials offset any losses. Consequently, the Nifty ended flat at 16,569.55. On the sector front, a mixed trend was observed, with real estate, media and PSU banks being the biggest losers. The broader indices also showed a similar trend and traded mixed. Indian stock benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended a volatile session with minor cuts on Monday, falling for a second straight session. Gains in metals stocks and a weak recovery in select financials were offset by losses in IT stocks. Broader markets also weakened, with the Nifty Midcap 100 Index down 0.1% but its small-cap counterpart down 1 percent. All eyes are on the outcome of a bi-monthly review by the RBI, due later this week. The prevailing uncertainty on the global front, combined with caution about the outcome of the MPC meeting, is keeping participants on the alert. Signs point to further consolidation in the index so the focus should be on identifying the sectors/stocks and maintaining positions on either side. The market was cautious ahead of this week's credit policy announcement and as a result investors trimmed their positions in interest rate sensitive sectors such as real estate. Technically, the Nifty found support near 16450 but failed to capitalize on it. The chart's texture suggests that range-bound activity is likely to persist in the near term. For day traders, 16450 would be the main support level to look out for and above which the index could rally to 16625-16675. On the upside, a fresh round of selling pressure is possible if the index trades below 16450. Any further decline could see the index retest the 16375-16325 level.

Resistance: 16625, 16675, 116725

Support: 16450, 16375, 16300

 

Banknifty Outlook for Coming Week Expiry 9 june 2022

In the current series, Niftybank Future has been seen a long addition with its price up 1.39% and OI up 4% from Wednesday, transacting 0.97 lakh OI shares, which has moved up from 23.79 Shares fell to 22.82 lakh lakh. Bank Nifty's current series rollover is 9% today, while the Niftybank Put Call Ratio, a sentiment indicator used by traders to gauge market sentiment and sentiment, is currently 0.95 compared to 0.99 of the last week, indicating flat to positive Niftybank Put Options OI distribution shows that 35,000 has the highest OI concentration, followed by 35,500 and 34,500 which could serve as support for the current expiry and at the Call fronts 36,000 followed by 36,500 and 36,200 showed significant OI concentration and could act as resistance. On weekly options, call writing was observed at 35,000, 35,500 and 34,500, while on the put side it was at 36,000, 36,500 and 36,200 was observed. Options data indicated an immediate trading range between 35,000 and 36,500.

NiftybankOpen Interest Concentration

Niftybank Option OI Change

NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 6 JUNE TO 10 JUNE 2022

WEEKLY RESISTANCE PIVOT POINT WEEKLY & CHART

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	16,543	16,734	17,054	16,223	16,032	15,712	15,521
Fibonacci	16,418	16,539	16,734	16,223	16,028	15,907	15,712
Camarilla	16,399	16,446	16,492	16,223	16,305	16,258	16,211

DAILY RESISTANCE PIVOT POINT SUPPORT CHART  

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	16,701	16,775	16,905	16,572	16,498	16,369	16,295
Fibonacci	16,650	16,698	16,775	16,572	16,494	16,446	16,369
Camarilla	16,646	16,665	16,683	16,572	16,609	16,590	16,572

Our market's late recovery over the past week appears to have anticipated some easing on the global front. Consistent with this, we see a comfortable environment globally, which has resulted in a gap opening in domestic markets to start the week cheerfully. The leading index, the Nifty, opened up almost 200 points to set the tone for the entire week. As the day progressed, gains gradually extended across the index, but a number of individual stocks performed extremely well and continued to hum throughout the remainder. Finally, the bullish day ended convincingly above 16600, with the bulls pocketing a few more % into Friday's close. Our markets started Tuesday sluggishly as indicated by the Nifty earlier this morning. However, post the opening; We saw a gradual recovery to almost test the 16700 level. But as we entered the last hour the market was looking jittery which eventually led to a sharp decline to end the day just below 16600, losing nearly half a percent from the previous close. Although indicated a slow start on Wednesday, our markets opened marginally in the green at 16600. Some consolidation followed in the first half of the year; but as we entered the latter, some hesitancy was evident in the broader market. As a result, the Nifty crept below 16500 and even slipped slightly below 16450 in the hour before last. Luckily the banking room came to a rescue and lifted the market to eventually reclaim the 16500 on a closing basis. The Indian stock market enjoyed a strong expiration session on Thursday, with the tentative open led by weak Asian cues being bought by D-Street bulls. The grand move was supported by broad-based buying, which boosted overall market sentiment and showed participants' resilience. The benchmark index ended the expiration session near the daily high with gains of 0.64% and has reclaimed the 16600 level. On Friday 03 june 2022 The benchmark indices ended moderately lower amid volatile session, while the broader space was under selling pressure. The Sensex fell more than 600 points from day's high to end with 49 points loss at 55769, and the Nifty50 shed 44 points to 16584.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16200; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17000

Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily scale while it formed a small-bodied bullish candle on the weekly scale, suggesting no follow-up buying and continued supply pressures at higher levels. Now it needs to hold above 16550 for an upward move towards the 16800 and 17000 zone while placing supports at the 16442 and 16400 zones.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKINGNifty's short-term uptrend status remains intact with no signs of a reversal from the highs yet. Further weakness from here could find strong support around the 16500 – 16300  levels and the Nifty could show upward movement from the lower levels. A sustained move higher could only be resumed above the 16800 hurdle.

 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 3 JUNE 2022

After a slow start, markets rebounded sharply on renewed optimism as investors bought shares in the recently battered IT and oil & gas stocks. In fact, Indian stocks outperformed other Asian peers, most of which ended in negative territory. At the time of Market close the indices ended the session on June 2 on a positive note, with the Sensex gaining 436 points to 55818 and the Nifty gaining 105 points to 16628. Reliance rose over 3% to close at a 1-month high, lifting Nifty by 68 points.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 2 JUNE 2022

Nifty closed lower on June 1 for the second straight month. Nifty opened flat and started falling slightly after 11:45. It formed a bottom at 2:45 p.m., after which a small recovery was seen. At the close, Nifty was down 38 points at 16546. Volumes on the NSE were lower than recent averages. Nifty has gradually corrected the earlier move higher and may soon see the next leg up. 16414 is an important support. Indian benchmark indices ended the day negative with Nifty50 closing at 16522 and Sensex closing at 55381. Benchmark indices got off to a cautious start given mixed global market signals. Markets entered green territory late morning, led by strong buying in metals, PSU and oil & gas scrips. But soon the euphoria faded as the sell-off in IT scrips dragged the market into negative territory below the crucial 16525 level, although markets rallied in the last session and closed above the crucial level 16500. On the technical side, the key resistance levels for Nifty50 lie at 16600 and on the downside, 16400 can act as a strong support. The key resistance and support levels for Bank Nifty are 36000 and 35200 respectively. Nifty remained choppy for the coming days as the benchmark index ended with no directional move. On the upside, 50-EMA acted as a key resistance. However, the Nifty did not slip very far from the previous close. The trend remains sideways in the short term. Support is visible at 16350 while on the upper end resistance at 16600 is likely to remain intact.

Resistance: 16550, 16650, 16750

Support: 16450, 16350, 16250