NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 16 DEC 2021

Markets continued to decline for a third straight session on Wednesday 15 Dec 2021 on the back of unsupportive global cues. The Nifty index ended lower by 103 points at 17226 levels. Most of the sectoral indices traded in tandem with the benchmark and ended lower. The broader markets too witnessed selling pressure as both Midcap and Small cap ended lower by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. All eyes will be on the US Fed meeting tonight and we’re going to see the reaction in early trade on Thursday. While the majority expects that the committee would hold rates citing the possible challenges due to the new COVID variant, commentary on tapering, inflation and growth would be critical. Besides, we have weekly derivatives expiry scheduled, so expect choppiness to remain high. Participants should wait for some clarity over the direction and limit positions.

The Nifty witnessed continued selling pressure near the key hourly moving averages & the 20 DMA. Recently, it had formed a Popgun pattern on the daily chart & as a follow through of the pattern, it is sliding down. For the last couple of sessions minor bounces are getting restricted near these key short term moving averages. Thus 17300-17350 will continue to act as a near term resistance zone. On the downside, the index is approaching 61.8% retracement of the recent leg of the rise. The key Fibonacci level, which is near 17175, is the immediate support to watch out for. If that is breached then the fall can extend towards 17100 on the downside. 

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Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 15 DEC 2021

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Market ended the session on Tuesday 14 December 2021 on a negative note with Sensex down 166 points at 58117, and the Nifty shedding 43 points at 17324. Due to elevated levels of inflation and weak Asian markets, the domestic indices extended losses ahead of the US Fed policy announcement. Offsetting a favorable base effect and cut in levies on fuel, India’s CPI inflation rose to 4.91% YoY in November as higher input costs forced producers to hike prices. Moreover, India’s wholesale inflation soared to a 12 year high of 14.23% YoY underpinned by mineral oil, base metals, crude petroleum and natural gas.

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 14 DEC 2021

Market failed to hold on to gains made earlier in the session, and ended lower on Monday, dragged down by realty, oil & gas, and PSU bank stocks. The Sensex fell 503 points, to end the day at 58283, and the Nifty was down 143 points at 17368. The markets failed to close above the 17500 level, we witnessed a sharp reversal and the Nifty dropped.

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR NEXT WEEK 13 DEC TO 17 DEC 2021

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17600, 17800, 18000

PIVOT POINT: 17400

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17200, 17000, 16800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17550, 17650, 17750

PIVOT POINT: 17450

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17250, 17150

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

In the midst of the mixed global cues, our markets started the week on a flat note. After the initial volatility, Nifty managed to find a clear direction; but unfortunately it was southwards. As the day progressed, the selling aggrandized across the broader market to break all intraday supports one after another. Eventually, bulls surrendered the psychological level of 17000 convincingly to mark lowest daily close in last three months. Despite positive global cues, our markets had a terrible session on Monday as Nifty marked the lowest close in last three months. But we could not neglect the extended recovery in global peers on Tuesday. All key indices started the session with a decent upside gap and as the day progressed, the upward move kept accelerating to recoup all previous day’s losses. Eventually, Nifty ended the session tad below 17200 with over one and half a percent gains. Tuesday’s smart recovery was followed by a decent bump up at the opening on Wednesday and cheerful mood across the globe provided impetus for this head start. This gap up might have caught so many overnight traders on the wrong foot and hence, there was a complete gush seen in the initial hour to cover shorts. As a result, all key indices extended their relief rally and remained steady post the RBI monetary policy, which turned out to be a non-event.In last couple of sessions, our markets have witnessed a remarkable recovery from sub-17000 territory. This positivity was carried over Thursday at the start as we witnessed a gap up opening with a small margin above 17500. However, in the initial hour, we witnessed a strong bout of profit booking to not only erase opening gains but also went on to slide below 17400. Fortunately the initial nerves settled down immediately which resulted in a complete recovery during the remaining part of the day to conclude the weekly expiry on a positive note tad above the 17500 mark. Indian market traded with cuts to close flat following weak sentiments in the global market as the market awaits the release of Indian and US November inflation numbers.  market ended on flat note in the highly volatile session on 10 dec 2021 friday. At close, the Sensex was down 20 points at 58786, and the Nifty was down 5 points at 17511.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

If we take a glance at the overall price movement in last 7 – 8 sessions, markets has been gyrating in a slightly wider range where both ends got tested with immense volatility. So market has decided to take some breather after nearing the cluster of resistance i.e. 17500 – 17600 – 17700.  For the coming session, 17200 followed by 17000 are to be seen as immediate supports.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Overall this week our market managed to close in the positive terrain; but it was certainly a challenging week for both counterparties. Market was clearly unsure of its direction for the most part of the week. If we look at it from a technical point of view, market is respecting the levels precisely. At the beginning, the Nifty started rebounding after reaching the price target of ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern of 16800 and on Friday, it became nervous after nearing a stiff resistance zone of 17500 – 17600. Direction wise, we continue to remain cautious and there is no doubt we are still in a ‘Sell on rise’ kind of market. This view will remain intact as long as Nifty does not surpass 17900 which is the confluence point of two key trend lines. Also sooner or later we expect the recent low around 16800 is to be breached soon; but it will happen immediately or after some more consolidation in the range of 16800 – 17500; we need to assess the situation in the coming week. Meanwhile, traders can continue with a stock specific approach and we may see trades on both sides if Nifty remains in a consolidation mode. But it would be a prudent strategy to keep booking timely profits and considering the volatile nature of global markets, carrying aggressive bets overnight should be strictly avoided. As far as levels are concerned, 17350 – 17500 – 17600 are to be considered as immediate hurdles; whereas on the flipside, 17000 – 16800 should be treated as a cluster of support.

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 10 DEC 2021

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The positive batten from last two trading sessions’ passed on to 9 December 2021 trade but digging deeper Nifty wobbled and traded choppy. There was some sense of discomfort whenever Nifty swigged higher a sense of discord was clearly seen amongst investors’ camp. At close, the Sensex was up 157 points at 58807, and the Nifty was up 47 points at 17516. Technically, the Omicron covid virus will lose its punch if Nifty scales above 17600 mark. Despite witnessing a choppy trading session, the markets maintained their positive momentum as investors put money in the beaten down stocks. After the post morning selloff, the Nifty took the support near 17400 and reversed sharply to hover between 17420- 17530 levels. On daily charts, the index has formed a Hammer candlestick formation which indicates indecisiveness between bulls and bears. The short-term formation is still on the bullish side but before any fresh breakout, the market may consolidate within the range of 17350 to 17575.Expect an up-and-down session in tomorrow’s trade with all bullish eyes on Nifty’s major hurdles at 17600 mark. Please note, confirmation of strength only on any close above 17600 mark.

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Resistance: 17550, 17650, 17750

Support: 17450, 17350, 17250

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 09 DEC 2021

Market continued its upward journey on the second consecutive day on 8 December 2021 with Nifty and Sensex hovering near day’s high. The Nifty reclaimed 17450 levels. Among sectors, all the key indices were trading with a positive momentum. The European markets are trading flat today. RBI keeps accommodative stance with interest rate unchanged at 4% and reverse repo rate at 3.35% and will maintain this stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth which gives a clear signal that RBI is giving a strong & durable support to the economy without downsizing any support which will be beneficial for the equity markets as well. The Nifty settled at 17469 levels with 1.7% gains while the Bank Nifty increased by 1.75% to close at 37285 levels. 

Hence, the markets have given a stellar run up today giving thumbs up to RBI's comments today. Despite record equity selling by FIIs, RBI has done well to defend the currency and made sure that imported inflation is under check. Immediate support and resistance for Nifty is 17300 and 17600 and for Bank Nifty is 37000 and 37700.

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Resistance: 17550, 17650, 17750

Support: 17450, 17350, 17250

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR RBI CREDIT POLICY ON 8 DEC 2021

On Wednesday 8 Dec 2021 markets opened on positive note, ahead of the outcome of the RBI's scheduled policy meeting, wherein the key benchmark rates are expected to remain unchanged amid uncertainties over new coronavirus variant Omicron. The Nifty is again close to the resistance zone of 17475-17550. If we are successful in closing past it, the Nifty can scale higher to 17600-17800. The current support lies at 17200 and if we break that, the markets could fall all the way down to 17000-16800.

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NIFTY & BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 08 DEC 2021

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After a gap-up opening on Tuesday, the nifty continued the upward move throughout the day and gained more than 1.58% to close at 17176 levels. While Banknifty closed the session at 36618 with a gain of 882 points. On an hourly chart, the index has taken support from the rising trendline and closed above the same, which adds strength to the counter. On four hourly charts, the index has formed a doji kind of candle, which suggests indecision between buyer and sellers. Moreover, an Hourly Momentum indicator MACD was trading with a positive crossover, which suggests the bullish movement is intact.  At present, the nifty has support at 16950 levels while resistance comes at 17250 levels, crossing above the same can show 17350-17500 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 36000 levels while resistance at 36900 levels.

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Resistance: 17450, 17300, 17350

Support: 17200, 17150, 17100

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 07 DEC 2021

Markets plunged sharply lower and lost over one and a half percent on Monday 6 December 2021 , in continuation to Friday’s fall. After the flat start, weak global cues and updates on the new COVID variant started weighing on the sentiment as the day progressed. Consequently, the Nifty ended near day’s low to close at 16912 levels. The sectoral indices traded in tandem and mostly ended in the red wherein IT, auto, FMCG and pharma were among the top losers. The rise in COVID cases has again started haunting the global markets and the situation may deteriorate further in near future. Besides, the upcoming MPC’s policy review outcome and macroeconomic data (IIP and CPI inflation) would keep the volatility high. Keeping in mind the scenario, we reiterate a cautious stance and suggest continuing with a hedged approach. Nifty is continuing its corrections after a minor pullback where it has again slipped below its 100-DMA. The selling can be attributed to rising cases of omicron variant in India along with other countries whereas FIIs are also continuing to hold their hand on the sell button. There was a sharp selling on Tech stocks in the USA in Friday's trading session and the same was replicated in our market where the Nifty IT index ended with a cut of 2.7%, however there was broad-based selling because there was no sectorial index that ended on a positive note. The market may continue to remain volatile amid news flow related to the omicron variant.
Technically, 16850-16750 is a critical support zone for the Nifty where we can expect a bounce back while below this zone, 16500 will be the next important support level. On the upside, 17000 will act as an immediate intraday resistance for tomorrow while 100-DMA of 17175 will be the next hurdle; above 100-DMA, we can expect a short covering move towards the 17250-17350 zone. Bank Nifty still manages to close above its 200-DMA that is currently placed at 35725 level. If it starts to trade below this level then we can expect further weakness towards the 35000 level otherwise it may witness a bounceback. On the upside, 36400 will be immediate and intraday resistance while 36600/36800 will be the next resistance levels.

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Resistance: 17250, 17350, 17450

Support: 16950, 16850, 16750

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY FUTURE 06 DEC 2021

After Wednesday & Thursday of a relief rally, selling resumed on Friday as mixed cues in other Asian markets weighed on sentiment that prompted investors to trim their holdings in auto, FMCG and IT stocks. While Nifty corrected sharply, it finally took support near 16800. In an extremely volatile week, the Nifty succeeded to close above the 100 day SMA which is broadly positive. However, on the dismissal of 17150, the market could again enter in the short term bearish zone and below the same, the index could gradually fall to 16900/16750 levels. Based on the daily chart the market is forming the series of a lower top lower bottom. In case the market breaks 16800 then it would have major implications and in that case the possibility of the index hitting 16500 would turn bright. Meanwhile, on daily charts, the Bank Nifty maintained a lower top formation which is largely negative. Now, 35600 or 200 day SMA would be the key support level.  And the texture of the chart suggests a strong possibility of axquick pullback rally if it succeeds to trade above 35600.