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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11600, 11800,12000
PIVOT POINT: 11450
WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY: 11300, 11200, 11000
WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY
DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11550, 11600,11700
PIVOT POINT: 11450
DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY: 11400, 11300, 11200
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY
The global set up was just ideal Monday
morning to have a head start for the new trading week. We began convincingly
above 11500 and then slipped into a consolidation mode for the major part of
the session. However post the midsession, the nifty took a nosedive and within
a blink of an eye, we not only pare down gains but also sneaked well inside the
negative territory. Fortunately a modest recovery at the end reduced the damage
on a closing basis. The overnight rally in US markets had a rub off effect on
almost all major Asian bourses. Hence, we too started the Tuesday session with
a gap up opening despite Monday’s shaky session. Subsequently, similar to recent
behaviour, index went into a consolidation mode and kept flirting around the
11500 mark. However from nowhere, a strong buying emerged in the banking
conglomerates at the stroke of the penultimate hour. This pushed Nifty higher
to end convincingly above 11500. We had a flat to positive start Wednesday
despite Nifty indicating a sluggish start early in the morning. Similar to
recent trend, the index consolidated in a small range throughout the first
half. However, post the midsession, some strong buying emerged in banking as
well as IT counters. This resulted into Nifty surpassing the intraday hurdle of
11570 to reclaim the 11600 mark. Thursday morning, the global markets looked
nervous and hence, we were about to open lower after Wednesday's smart move.
The Nifty was indicating a start below 11500 with more than 100 points cut;
but fortunately, Nifty did not open in line with what nifty was indicating. In
fact, post the initial hiccup, markets stabilized and recovered a bit. However,
the global weakness eventually weighed down heavily and we corrected towards
11500 around the midpoint. Post this, some volatile swings were witnessed in a
range of 50 points to eventually conclude the weekly expiry tad above the 11500
mark.
NIFTY:
A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11300; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11800
Indices seemed to have lost clear
direction and are clearly trapped in a range. This week, we witnessed strong
sell off from higher levels, it was almost the reverse action. With this week
late surge in banking stocks, both Nifty as well as BankNifty are interestingly
poised. For Nifty, if 11600 is taken out, we would see some extension towards 11700
- 11800 levels. On the flipside, 11400 followed by 11300 are to be seen as key
supports.
TECHNICALLY
SPEAKING.
Although, this week weakness in our
market has to do with the global cues, we are not surprised with it. Despite a
strong tail end surge of this week, we avoided longs and had mentioned the
configuration of the 'Bearish Wolfe Wave' pattern on the weekly chart. The
observation has certainly proved its significance this week; but honestly
speaking, this week correction was
nowhere close to a sell-off, rather can only be interpreted as a small profit
taking. But having said that we continue to remain cautious and still do not
expect the Nifty to surpass the sturdy wall of 11650-11700 soon. Going forward,
11450-11350 would be seen as crucial support and a move below this would
trigger some decent correction thereafter. Since US Dollar Index and Equity
markets are inversely correlated, any surge in this would lead to correction in
our markets. Hence, it is important to take a note of this development as well.